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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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