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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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