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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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Showing 1776 to 1780 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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