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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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