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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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