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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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