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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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Showing 1756 to 1760 news of total 6871 |
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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