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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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Showing 1756 to 1760 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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