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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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