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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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