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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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Showing 1751 to 1755 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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