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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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