We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
|
|
|
Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
