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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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