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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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Showing 1746 to 1750 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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