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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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