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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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