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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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