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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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