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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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