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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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