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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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