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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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