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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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