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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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