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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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Showing 1706 to 1710 news of total 6871 |
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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