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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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Showing 1706 to 1710 news of total 6871 |
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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