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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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