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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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