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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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