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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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