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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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