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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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