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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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