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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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