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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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