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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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