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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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