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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
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