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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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