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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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