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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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Showing 1686 to 1690 news of total 6871 |
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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