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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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