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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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