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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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