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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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