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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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