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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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