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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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