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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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