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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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