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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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Showing 1631 to 1635 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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