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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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