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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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