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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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