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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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