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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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