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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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