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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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