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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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