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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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