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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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