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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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