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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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