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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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