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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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