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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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