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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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