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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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