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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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