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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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