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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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