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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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