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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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