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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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