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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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