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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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