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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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