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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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