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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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