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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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