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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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