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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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