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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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