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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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