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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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