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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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