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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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