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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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