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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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Showing 1511 to 1515 news of total 6871 |
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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