We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
|
|
|
Showing 1511 to 1515 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
