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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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Showing 1511 to 1515 news of total 6871 |
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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