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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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