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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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