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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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