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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
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