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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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