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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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