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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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